TRADE DISRUPTION SCENARIO MODELING

Operational Risk Modeling Service — Non-Legal / Non-Broker (Decision Support Only)

What This Service Is

Trade Disruption Scenario Modeling is a structured modeling engagement that converts trade volatility (tariffs, sanctions, border friction, export controls, logistics shocks, supplier-country risk) into operational scenarios your leadership team can plan against.

It answers one question with precision:

If external trade conditions change, what breaks first inside our operations—and what decisions must be made now to prevent avoidable failure?

This service does not predict policy outcomes or provide legal advice. It constructs decision-ready scenarios so executives can set contingency posture and execution triggers.

Why This Is Needed

Most organizations treat trade risk as an “external” issue handled by legal memos or broker updates. That approach fails because operational breakdowns occur before organizations adapt.

Common operational failure conditions include:

  • Landed cost volatility that makes planning and quoting unreliable

  • Lead times expanding faster than production can absorb

  • Border delays creating unplanned line stoppages and expedite costs

  • Supplier-country concentration creating single-point exposure

  • Policy changes that force part substitutions mid-program

  • Conflicting internal assumptions (“it won’t affect us”) with no contingency plan

Scenario modeling is used to stop improvisation and replace it with defined operating posture.

What Companies Commonly Face (Lawful Examples)

Examples of scenarios this service models (without providing legal advice or broker functions):

  • A core input sourced from one country experiences a tariff increase or new duty program exposure → production cost and quoting volatility

  • Border inspections and clearance delays extend inbound lead times → WIP instability and missed delivery windows

  • A supplier’s region becomes unstable → continuity risk and accelerated alternate sourcing timelines

  • A customer requests documentation changes (e.g., certifications, traceability) tied to trade compliance → internal documentation capacity stress

The objective is operational: what changes in flow, buffers, scheduling, sourcing posture, and decision cadence.

How TJEG Performs the Work

TJEG builds scenarios using operational intelligence methods—modeling execution physics, not legal interpretation.

  1. Exposure Inventory (Operational View)

    • Identify critical inputs, lanes, suppliers, and lead-time dependencies

    • Map where trade volatility translates into plant disruption (materials, planning, shipping, customer delivery)

  2. Scenario Construction

    • Build a small set of plausible scenarios (baseline / moderate shock / severe shock)

    • Define triggers (what signals indicate the scenario is occurring)

  3. Operational Consequence Modeling

    • Translate each scenario into impacts on: throughput, schedule stability, inventory, expedite costs, quality risk, and delivery credibility

    • Define where decisions must occur to prevent cascade failures

  4. Decision Options and Posture

    • Define actionable options (buffers, alternate sourcing posture, qualification cadence, dual-lane routing posture, critical spares posture, customer commitment controls)

    • Provide decision timing: what must be decided now vs later

  5. Broker/Counsel Interface Pack

    • Produce a structured list of questions/inputs to take to the organization’s customs broker and/or trade counsel

    • TJEG does not provide legal determinations; TJEG prepares leadership to ask the right questions and act operationally once determinations are obtained

    What This Delivers

  • Scenario set (2–5) with defined triggers and impact pathways

  • Operational consequence map (flow, schedule, inventory, throughput risk)

  • Decision matrix: options, timing, owners, dependencies

  • Contingency posture recommendations (non-legal)

  • Broker/Counsel Interface Pack (questions + required data list)

  • Executive readout (decision-ready, non-technical)

Who This Is For

  • CEOs/COOs/VP Ops managing schedule credibility under volatility

  • Procurement/Supply Chain leaders needing enterprise-level decision posture

  • Manufacturers with concentrated supplier-country exposure

  • Federal or regulated delivery environments where misses escalate quickly

Engagement Characteristics

  • Rapid, decision-ready modeling

  • Industry-agnostic; tuned to your bill-of-materials realities

  • Standalone or precursor to JETIS briefings / operating model design

  • No dependency creation

Cost & Commercial Structure

  • Fixed-scope engagement based on enterprise span (products, suppliers, lanes, sites)

  • No success fees; no contingency compensation; no percentage-of-savings structures

Compliance Boundary (Non-Negotiable)

TJEG provides operational decision support only. This service does not include:

  • Tariff classification (HTS), valuation, country-of-origin determinations, broker filings

  • Customs brokerage services or CBP representation

  • Legal advice on compliance, sanctions, export controls, AD/CVD scope, or penalty risk

  • Instructions to evade duties or circumvent regulations

You keep your broker and/or trade counsel as the authority for legal determinations.

Start

If trade volatility could disrupt operations and leadership needs decision posture:

Initiate Trade Disruption Scenario Modeling →


(Leads to intake: products, suppliers, lanes, sites, planning cadence, delivery risk)